Learning Reflection 2

Recent work on EDEM630 has been based around scenario planning, a concepts that I hadn’t previously been aware of or known about.   

I see the difference between the strategic planning and scenario planning as the difference between predicting the future (strategic planning) and preparing for the future (scenario planning).  Predicting the future looks to focus resourcing and thinking more specifically towards likely outcomes based on recent history, current trends, and expected futures.  Preparing for the future looks more towards uncertainties that may happen, with strategies in place to address all uncertainties, should they come to light.

Having been in senior management in schools for some time, I have been involved in countless strategic planning sessions; looking to set the direction of the school to best suit the needs of students.  I now feel that the scenario planning approach is a more effective means for long term forecasts for strategic decisions.  It goes beyond the ‘all eggs in one basket’ approach that, I believe, is the case with strategic planning.

In creating scenarios it is important to be creative in both the scenarios, and the procedures and systems to meet the identified outcomes (Sargent, 2011).  Lack of imagination can lead to too much similarity, meaning a strategic planning predicting approach may as well have been used.  From my own perspective, I will be looking towards the learning the processes that are used to identify possible futures in the scenario planning process.  I often go into situations with predetermined ideas that I find hard to waver from.  I need to be able to put my own limited thoughts. ideas and opinions aside to look towards a broader range of scenarios.

I found the newspaper article activity to be the most enjoyable and valuable of all that I did for the SP4Ed programme.  This really encouraged me to reflect on a possible future scenario for learners, as well as the events and uncertainties that led up to the possible future I identified.  In doing so I examined my own beliefs, as well as the skills and knowledge that I believe will be needed to have a future impact and role in education.

I found the Horizon Report on trends to be absolutely fascinating, enlightening and affirming.  The two trends that I focused on for a blog post; social media and cloud computing; are areas that I have been following for sometime, and have tried to embed in the schools that I have worked in.  The Horizon Report will provide me with evidence that I can use to, hopefully, convince others that both are areas worthy of implementing.  

A key question that I have related to scenario planning is based around having too many areas of focus for the future.  Preparing for a number of uncertainties could potentially spread resourcing thinly, particularly if scenarios prepared for are too outlandish and simply unlikely to happen.  Perhaps there are benefits in predicting and resourcing towards the more likely future, based on careful analysis of recent trends.

I found the scenario matrix activity extremely challenging, and relied on those who did the task before me for support by looking at their matrixes.  Having finally completed my own, a question I have is ‘what next?’.  Do I take the preferred outcome and focus on that; but still acknowledge the lesser desired outcomes, or do I focus primarily on the least desired outcome, knowing that if it does eventuate my organisation is at least prepared for it?

A key part in implementation of scenario planning will be convincing others of it’s worth. Miesing and van Ness (2007) discuss the need to focus on the right issue, otherwise considerable time, effort and resources could be spent on a focus that has only minimal impact on the overall direction of the school.  I will need to identify a significant issue, then bring other key stakeholders in to work through the scenario planning process to convince them of it’s worth.

Ways and Burbank (2005) outline a systematic approach for scenario planning.  However, knowing what to do and actually doing it are two quite different things. I need to now take the knowledge that I have acquired and implement it, something that I will do through the process of participating in EDEM630.

References

Miesing, P., & van Ness, R. K. (2007). Exercise: Scenario Planning. Organization Management Journal (Palgrave Macmillan Ltd.), 4(2), 148-167.

Sargent, K. (2011). scenario planning. Contract, 52(5), 60.

Ways, S. B., & Burbank, C. (2005). Scenario Planning. Public Roads, 69(2), 1.

Newspaper Article: Students take over the 'classroom'!

Teachers are a thing of the past; children have taken over the classroom to design their own learning programmes.

Education has changed a lot in recent times; students are no longer following a timetable and lesson plans set by their teacher within the four walls of a classroom.  They are now planning their own learning and doing it anywhere; at home, in the local library, or even in the park on a sunny afternoon!

Since the introduction of online learning programmes and the availability inexpensive hardware to access content, there has been a significant change in the way that many students are going about their learning.

With the nationwide availability of ultra fast broadband and inexpensive throwaway mobile learning tools, personalized learning is available to just about anyone who chooses this means of education.  However, there are 'losers' in this story; those teachers and educators who didn't prepare for the future back as far as 2013 and start to up-skill themselves and future-proof their schools to meet the needs of the next generation of learners.  The teachers and schools who saw where education was heading, and took the time to participate in professional development, are now in high demand to plan learning environments to meet the needs of the independent learner.

This news is significant and newsworthy as it shows how what was once seen as the only way of educating students, this being in a traditional school environment, can change through the use of new technology and a change of mindset.  Other organisations need to beware and forewarned; if it can happen in schools, it can happen in hospitals, the armed services; nowhere is 'safe' from the growing reach of new technologies.

Back in the early part of the century many aspects of using computers and ICT technology were quite complicated, often beyond the reach of primary school children.  A significant change happened with the introduction of the iPad and the app system that ran alongside it.  Since then technology has become increasingly accessible to even the youngest child.  No longer were children required to know complicated computer code; they now had access to a huge range of learning tools at the press of a button.

Around the same time as the iPad was introduced there also came a wealth of online courses that enabled students to participate in personalized learning programmes.  Remember the Khan Academy?  At the time it seemed to be groundbreaking, but only a few 'tech savvy  teachers were prepared to use it in the own classrooms.  Now teachers who don't utilize online programmes are seen as old fashioned relics who are trying to hold onto a system that is long past it's use by date.

Children are now able to design their own school curriculum with the aid of online tutors and quality interactive online learning programmes.  Children are working at a pace that suites them, and are no longer having to wait for their slower paced peers to catch up with them before moving on to a new concept. Virtual classrooms are now being set up all over the world, with New Zealand students in the same 'class' as children from Switzerland, Argentina, South Africa and anywhere else there are others with similar learning needs.  Students are now truly 'global independents' who are able to participate in their learning at anytime that suites them, not just simply between the hours of 9.00am and 3.00pm.

There hasn't been a new school built in New Zealand since 2020, and many schools are losing students in droves to online learning environments.  This has led to huge cost savings for the Ministry of Education, with funds now being targeted directly to teaching and learning, and away from bricks, mortar, administration and auxiliary staff wages.  This has enabled the Ministry to fund resources for every child moving to online schools, meaning that the latest technology isn't only available for those families who can afford it.

There are some who oppose the move towards student centered online learning.  Members of the Luddite School System have gone on record stating that children are losing their ability to interact with others in a normal face-to-face way.  The Luddite Charter School System strictly forbids the use of any modern technology in their classrooms, preferring their students take part in teacher led, practical hands-on activities with other children in their age group.

It will be interesting to see which education approach will win out in the long term.  However, at this point of time the move towards student centered online learning environments is attracting more students everyday.  It is clear that those who saw this type of learning as a possibility back as far as 2013 have had the advantage of being prepared for the future that has now happened.



 

Scenario Matrix - What will education look like in 2033?

What will education look like in 2033? This is based on three uncertainties:

1. the role and impact of technology for learning in the future;
2. where learning takes place for students; and
3. is the learning teacher centered or student centered?.

Four scenarios

1. Learner centered and technology enhanced - globally based and independent.  This group is called the Global Independents.
2. Learner centered with limited technology - locally based and independent.  This group is called the Local Independents.
3. Teacher centered with technology - globally based and reliant.  This group is called the Global Reliants.
4. Teacher centered with limited technology - locally based and reliant.  This group is called the Local Reliants.

Global Independents
The Global Independents take responsibility for their own learning, with learning taking place outside of the traditional classroom environment.  Students identify the learning topics, areas, and focus that best suits their needs, goals and aspirations.  These learners may be guided by a facilitator, but the agenda is largely set by the student.  Technology resources are used extensively to access resources globally to support programmes.

Local independents
The Local Independents also take responsibility for their own learning, with learning taking place outside of the traditional classroom environment.  Students identify the learning topics, areas, and focus that best suits their needs, goals and aspirations.  These learners may be guided by a facilitator, but the agenda is largely set by the student.  Local Independents utilize local resources to support their learning, focusing on community needs and events, and basing their learning around addressing local issues.  ICT resources do not play a part in their learning, preferring traditional hands-on and practical learning experiences.

Global Reliants
A teacher has the responsibility of setting the learning agenda of Global Reliants, with learning taking place in a traditional classroom environment.  The teacher will identify the learning topics, areas, and focus that best suit the needs, goals and aspirations of the student, guided by a centralized curriculum.  Technology resources are used extensively to access resources globally to support programmes.

Local Reliants
A teacher has the responsibility of setting the learning agenda of Global Reliants, with learning taking place in a traditional classroom environment.  The teacher will identify the learning topics, areas, and focus that best suits their needs, goals and aspirations of the student, guided by a centralized curriculum.  Technology resources are not used, with the schools choosing more traditional approaches for curriculum delivery.

Selection and justification of major trends

Horizons Report and Web Research Findings

Online learning
Hybrid learning
Social media for interacting, presenting ideas and communicating
Open access to information and resources
BYOD
The roll of schools now that information is so widely available on the web
Professional development for staff in use and implementation of ICT
Cloud computing
Mobile learning
Open content
3D printing
Virtual and remote laboratories
Educational gaming
Electronic interactive textbooks

Two major trends in my own context

Social media 

• The use of the likes of Facebook, Twitter, Google Plus and Pinterest as a means on engaging, interacting, sharing ideas and communicating with individuals and groups.
• My current school is focussing on using Twitter and Facebook as a means of sharing, communicating and engaging with our community.  We have a school Facebook page, class Twitter feeds, a school Twitter feed, and Google Plus is used as a means of delivering a Mandarin language programme.  There has been a very positive response from the community re the use of social media resources.

Cloud Computing

• Cloud computing involves services being utilized that are 'off site' and not stored locally on servers. Examples include Google Apps and Office 365.  Resources can be accessed from anywhere, on almost any device with that is able to connect to the Internet.
• My school has invested heavily in terms of time and training in the use of Google Apps, We have chosen to use Google Apps because the interface is similar regardless of the devices that are used to access specific apps. Another key factor in our choice has been the fact that all updates are done online, without the need to involve tech support agencies, leading to considerable savings in maintenance. This is particularly significant in a small school with a limited budget.

Decision-making simulation

Self Determination for Programme Leaders

2016 scenario guide to effective tertiary education in New Zealand: Planning resource for programme leaders

My decision-making context:

I am reviewing the scenario through the lens of of a school principal of a Catholic School in provincial New Zealand.  

Overview of the scenario:

This is a very student centred approach to learning.  There are significant support structures available for and provided to the learner from the community beyond the classroom walls.  Experts are utilized from the community to provide programmes that are specific to the needs of individual students; there is a strong partnership between school staff and outside providers.  Instructional material is diverse, with there being no set text or programme outline.  The classroom can be anywhere, certainly not limited to a traditional classroom that has the students doing all of their learning in the one traditional teaching space.

Brainstorm list of recommended decisions:

What checks will be put in place to ensure that learning providers have the skills necessary to meet the needs of students?

Is the learning too personalised in terms of possible future application in wider contexts for the students?

Are there resources available in the community to support learners, or will there be a need to look beyond the immediate community?

Will this type of learning attracted learners?

Conversely, will this type of learning environment repel potential students and their families?

What physical ICT resources will be needed to support the learners and learning environment?

Two most important strategic decisions:

What checks will be put in place to ensure that learning providers have the skills necessary to meet the learning needs of students?

When counting on individuals and organisations who have not had specific training in working with students there will need to be considerable guidance, at least initially, to ensure that they have the pedagogical knowledge to support specific content knowledge and skills to meet the diverse learning needs of students.

Is the learning too personalised in terms of possible future application in wider contexts for the students?

Students in a primary school need a broad range of skills to meet the increasing learning requirements that are placed on them by statutory demands, such as curriculum requirements and national standards.  A too narrow focus may lead to strong skills and ability on some areas, but could be detrimental when looking at the ‘bigger picture’ in terms of the long term knowledge and skills acquisition to be successful in the New Zealand school learning environment.

Transferability of recommended decisions for the scenarios alternatives:

What checks will be put in place to ensure that learning providers have the skills necessary to meet the learning needs of students?

As the scenarios develop across the spectrum, from the bottom left to the top right of the figure 1 diagram, this becomes more relevant.  The four scenarios move from a more tightly structure programme, in which the provider has considerable influence in the teaching and delivery of programmes, through to a far more open structure, in which outside providers and resources are utilized to meet the needs of students and deliver programmes.

Is the learning too personalised in terms of possible future application in wider contexts for the students?

This is determined by the selection of programmes in any of the four scenarios.  Any of the four approaches could be based around either a very narrow or broad curriculum.  The breadth of the curriculum isn’t determined by the methodology for delivering it.

My view and opinion of scenario planning

I think that the scenario planning approach is a valid and useful one.  The idea of preparing for a number of possible futures is a particularly relevant one for me, as I have seen strategic decisions that have been based on current and likely trends to make significant purchases for school ICT resources that have turned out to be shortsighted; an example being substantial funding going towards netbooks shortly before the widely rumoured introduction of tablets, particularly the iPad.  This highlights to me how scenario planning in digital technologies is such a relevant process; change is happening so quickly; clearly strategies need to be in place to cater for this rapid change of pace in our world

I do see a potential disadvantage of scenario planning being stretching resources to focus on a range of outcomes, as opposed to focusing on lesser, and quite likely, areas of needs.  

In my own context of social media, I am aware of emerging tools, such as Google Plus and Pinterest, that could potentially be more useful in a school environment that the two I am focusing on (Facebook and Twitter).  Scenario Planning offers an avenue for for preparing for the possible implementation of the likes of Google Plus, possibly through the use of professional development on the resource to ensure that if the need arises, staff have the skills, knowledge and ability to implement the new system.

For my own needs, I will be looking towards the processes that are used to identify possible futures in the scenario planning process.  I often go into situations with predetermined ideas (netbooks!) that I find hard to waver from.  I need to be able to put my own thoughts. ideas and opinions aside to look towards more than the one scenario.

The three most important skills for generating effective scenarios and why I deem these skills to be important

Creative thinking and imagination

For the scenario planning to be successful there is a need for those taking part in the process to be creative in their thinking. Sargent (2011) describes how scenario planning requires multiple options to avoid dead ends.  This requires those involved to be able to identify a number of futures, as well as procedures and systems to meet the identified outcomes.  A lack of creative thinking will lead to similar outcomes, almost along the traditional strategic planning approach that is based on what is happening and what is likely to happen.

A systematic approach

Ways and Burbank (2005) outline a systematic approach to scenario planning.  Their process involves a series of six steps to work through: researching the driving forces; determining patterns of interaction; creating their scenarios; analyzing the implications; evaluating the scenarios; and monitoring the indicators.  These steps could be applied to any future forecasting through scenario planning, and are important because they provide a structured framework to ensure that, although the outcomes are uncertain, the methodology for preparing for a range of futures is consistent.

The ability to focus on the right issue

Miesing and van Ness (2007) highlight the need to identify the big question, the compelling scenario question.  This question will focus on the single overarching strategic issue for the organisation.  If this step is not taken to identify the most significant issue, then all other steps that follow, and the energy required to take these steps, are not done so for the best long term interests of the organisation as the focus should have been used in on another more relevant factor.

References

Miesing, P., & van Ness, R. K. (2007). Exercise: Scenario Planning. Organization Management Journal (Palgrave Macmillan Ltd.), 4(2), 148-167.

Sargent, K. (2011). scenario planning. Contract, 52(5), 60.

Ways, S. B., & Burbank, C. (2005). Scenario Planning. Public Roads, 69(2), 1.

"Scenarios can’t predict the future, so what’s the point?”

Although a scenario can’t predict the future, a scenario planning approach to what may happen can put the planner in a position in which he / she is prepared to face a number of possible futures. 

There is a significant difference between predicting the future and preparing for the future.  Predicting for the future is more than likely to be based on the past and what is happening now, then predicting what is most likely to happen based of these two factors.  It is almost a ‘putting all of your eggs in one basket approach’, with one outcome being considered, and all resourcing and strategic planning focused on that one outcome eventuating.

Preparing for the future suggests the planner being ready for a number of possible future outcomes. No one can be sure of what the future holds, but steps can be put in place to be ready to meet the effects of events that may take place.  Scenario planning gives the planner a degree of confidence that they have some control over what the future may have in store.